Project: Before & After the 2003 Cedar Fire and 2007 Witch Fire near Ramona, CA¶

Ramona is a rural community located in the backcountry of San Diego County. The region was originally inhabited by the Kumeyaay people and later became part of Spanish and Mexican land grants in the Santa Maria Valley. During the 1870s Gold Rush, Ramona served as a key stagecoach stop between San Diego and Julian.

After the Gold Rush, Ramona remained a quiet agricultural community. By the early 1900s, it earned national recognition as the “Turkey Capital of the World,” and ranching of poultry and cattle supported the local economy. In recent decades, zoning changes and population shifts have reduced agricultural activity. Despite these changes, Ramona continues to maintain a strong rural and community-oriented identity.

Citations: (Shipek, 1986; Pourade, 1965).

The Ramona Landscape, Geography, and Topography¶

Known as the Valley of the Sun, Ramona experiences hot summers, mild winters, and significant inland temperature variability. The town lies within a large valley surrounded by mountains ranging from ~1,000 to over 2,300 feet in elevation and is partially bordered by the Cuyamaca Mountains and the Cleveland National Forest.

Ramona is situated within the Southern California chaparral biome, dominated by drought-tolerant, fire-adapted shrubs. Shrubland is especially prominent along the rugged hills that border town, while oak stands occupy ravines and river corridors. The region is also characterized by rocky terrain, with Highways 67 and 78 carved directly into steep mountain faces.

Citations: (Keeley and Fotheringham, 2004).

The 2000s “Ring of Fire”¶

Prior to the 2000s, Ramona had limited exposure to high-intensity wildfire events. This shifted dramatically in the early twenty-first century.

2003 Cedar Fire¶

Burned over 200,000 acres—at the time, the largest fire in California history.
Impacted regions east, southeast, and southwest of Ramona.
Burned for more than a month under extreme weather conditions.

2007 Witch Creek Fire¶

Ignited north of town and burned the entire northern corridor.
Though smaller than the Cedar Fire, it significantly affected local vegetation and communities.

Together, these fires created a complete “ring” around Ramona. Residents frequently describe the 2000s as a defining decade shaped by fire and note that the landscape has not fully recovered—even nearly twenty years later.

Citations: CAL FIRE (Cedar Fire 2003; Witch Creek 2007); fire history of Southern California (Keeley & Zedler, 2009).

Investigating the Ring of Fire¶

Residents are correct that wildfire dramatically alters the landscape, but quantifying these changes requires spatial and temporal analysis.
This project investigates climate patterns, vegetation health, and land-cover change in Ramona before and after the Cedar and Witch Creek Fires using temperature trends, NDVI time series, and shrubland cover datasets.

Assumptions and Hypotheses¶

A1. Climate Change Assumption¶

Ramona has experienced measurable climate change, consistent with both observational data and lived experiences.

Tested by analyzing long-term temperature trends (TMAX, TMIN, TAVG).

H1. Vegetation Recovery Hypothesis¶

Vegetation in Ramona has not fully recovered from the 2003 Cedar and 2007 Witch Creek Fires.

H1.1 – Shrubland differences within vs. outside fire perimeters¶

Test through:

Mapping fire boundaries.
Analyzing RCMAP shrub cover for 1998–2010 and 2011–2024.
Comparing land cover 3 years before and after each fire
(2000–2003–2006 for Cedar; 2004–2007–2010 for Witch).

H1.2 – NDVI differences within vs. outside fire perimeters¶